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An energy crisis is looming;
the "peak oil" knocks at our door.
In 2005 I wrote the following as this blog entry: " In the coming years, mankind will be immersed in a large global energy crisis." Now, six years later (March 2011) can be said that humanity is immersed in a global energy crisis, caused by the clash between two opposite components, one social, the growing demand for resources of the world population and the other physical-geological, limited and finite reserves of energy and mining resources. As if they were two high-speed trains running on the same track in opposite directions.
Global demand for oil and mineral resources, is linked closely to economic growth. A higher growth, higher demand for these resources, the depletion of hydrocarbon deposits in the world. The impact does not bode well. In addition to this, the findings of new oil fields had their best years in the decade of the 60's, and now the findings are almost zero, or are in areas of complex extraction. Today we discover a barrel of oil for every 5 that are consumed.
oil declines, and this is serious for modern society, given the enormous dependence of industrial activities and transport, energy from oil.
Everything we do today, is an invisible link to oil. Shoes, tires, fertilizers, mechanical power, fuel, transportation, food, travel, glass, all modern industrial product or activity is dependent on the fossil resource is being depleted rapidly. Even build or maintain a central solar or wind power requires much oil, since all its components are transported in vehicles that consume fossil fuels.
The outlook is bleak because to date there is not enough developing oil projects in the world, to cope with the depletion of existing fields, while oil demand is growing. The decrease in consumption in the U.S. and Europe due to global economic crisis has been replaced by increased consumption in China, India and other developing countries.
The world consumes in just one day 85 million barrels of oil, which generates an annual total of 30.000 million. If you compare this amount, with Mexico's proven reserves, which are of 16.000 million barrels in total, one can understand the urgency of the situation, ... global consumption can deplete Mexican only 6 months.
70% of world oil production, comes from very old or very ripe to be exploited for more than 30 years, which they have to inject water and gas to keep them active. A good example of the seriousness of the situation, is what happens in the Cantarell oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. The extraction was started in 1979 and production peaked in 2004 with little more than 2 million bpd. By the end of 2009 the country produced only half a million barrels a day (see chart) . The prognosis for Cantarell is its rapid extinction. The same applies to almost all fields in the North Sea and affects the production of Norway as in England.
Global demand for oil and mineral resources, is linked closely to economic growth. A higher growth, higher demand for these resources, the depletion of hydrocarbon deposits in the world. The impact does not bode well. In addition to this, the findings of new oil fields had their best years in the decade of the 60's, and now the findings are almost zero, or are in areas of complex extraction. Today we discover a barrel of oil for every 5 that are consumed.
oil declines, and this is serious for modern society, given the enormous dependence of industrial activities and transport, energy from oil.
Everything we do today, is an invisible link to oil. Shoes, tires, fertilizers, mechanical power, fuel, transportation, food, travel, glass, all modern industrial product or activity is dependent on the fossil resource is being depleted rapidly. Even build or maintain a central solar or wind power requires much oil, since all its components are transported in vehicles that consume fossil fuels.
The outlook is bleak because to date there is not enough developing oil projects in the world, to cope with the depletion of existing fields, while oil demand is growing. The decrease in consumption in the U.S. and Europe due to global economic crisis has been replaced by increased consumption in China, India and other developing countries.
The world consumes in just one day 85 million barrels of oil, which generates an annual total of 30.000 million. If you compare this amount, with Mexico's proven reserves, which are of 16.000 million barrels in total, one can understand the urgency of the situation, ... global consumption can deplete Mexican only 6 months.
70% of world oil production, comes from very old or very ripe to be exploited for more than 30 years, which they have to inject water and gas to keep them active. A good example of the seriousness of the situation, is what happens in the Cantarell oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. The extraction was started in 1979 and production peaked in 2004 with little more than 2 million bpd. By the end of 2009 the country produced only half a million barrels a day (see chart) . The prognosis for Cantarell is its rapid extinction. The same applies to almost all fields in the North Sea and affects the production of Norway as in England.
Likewise, prospecting for new oil find does not give room for optimism. To consume oil must first be found, and the result of that search in the last 10 years has been stunted. History shows that the period in which most oil was found early 60's, where is easily achieved 50 billion per year. The rate of discovery has now fallen to only 7 billion barrels of oil per year, and worse, oil is discovered is of lower quality, is in remote regions, risky, high-complexity development. In a year
humanity consumes 30.000 million barrels of oil and only replaced in new discoveries, 7.000 million, ie for every 5 barrels consumed, is found only 1.
The ability of global oil production is giving way to the depletion of existing production, increased consumption and the lack of findings, therefore, the company is about to experience a wide oil shortage.
The complexity and size of the structure of transport, trade and industry worldwide, does not permit an easy solution to the enormous energy from alternative energy sources like ethanol, solar energy or wind.
After 35 years of development and research of new technologies, the joint contribution of all energy alternatives not exceed 0.5% of global energy consumption. No source has many benefits and many facilities like those offered by the oil.
Still, the urgency and preoccupations or n by maintaining energy security é policy in developed countries has led governments of these countries to implement "haste" and sometimes without a proper analysis, several alternative sources of oil .
However, the new generation capacity or n "renewable" to be installed each year around the world, is lagging far behind, as is comparatively modest in relation to increased global demand for energy and depletion production of oil. In conclusion, it is not enough to replace what we lost with the decline of oil and we're running virtually no energy to mount a new infrastructure that would enable an orderly energy transition.
Oil now provides 36% of global energy consumption and is the vital fuel for the extraction and production of other energy sources like coal (24%) and gas (22%).
Most major environmental damage to the planet are related to spills during production, refining and distribution of this resource. In addition, the combustion of hydrocarbons in the transport, which causes greenhouse gases.
economies, highly dependent on the energy f sil or operate under the logic of "steady growth" (or infinity), ie each year should be on economic performance a country, a positive increase over the previous year, but then how far can we go? ... if the economy grows, so does energy consumption .
The bad news it seems, is that world production of oil start to decline between 2007 and 2010, as geologists and engineers skilled in the art, which form the Association for the Study of Oil Depletion, called ASPO ( http://www. peakoil.net / ) .
Edgar Ocampo
http://www.crisisenergetica.org/
humanity consumes 30.000 million barrels of oil and only replaced in new discoveries, 7.000 million, ie for every 5 barrels consumed, is found only 1.
The ability of global oil production is giving way to the depletion of existing production, increased consumption and the lack of findings, therefore, the company is about to experience a wide oil shortage.
The complexity and size of the structure of transport, trade and industry worldwide, does not permit an easy solution to the enormous energy from alternative energy sources like ethanol, solar energy or wind.
After 35 years of development and research of new technologies, the joint contribution of all energy alternatives not exceed 0.5% of global energy consumption. No source has many benefits and many facilities like those offered by the oil.
Still, the urgency and preoccupations or n by maintaining energy security é policy in developed countries has led governments of these countries to implement "haste" and sometimes without a proper analysis, several alternative sources of oil .
However, the new generation capacity or n "renewable" to be installed each year around the world, is lagging far behind, as is comparatively modest in relation to increased global demand for energy and depletion production of oil. In conclusion, it is not enough to replace what we lost with the decline of oil and we're running virtually no energy to mount a new infrastructure that would enable an orderly energy transition.
Oil now provides 36% of global energy consumption and is the vital fuel for the extraction and production of other energy sources like coal (24%) and gas (22%).
Most major environmental damage to the planet are related to spills during production, refining and distribution of this resource. In addition, the combustion of hydrocarbons in the transport, which causes greenhouse gases.
economies, highly dependent on the energy f sil or operate under the logic of "steady growth" (or infinity), ie each year should be on economic performance a country, a positive increase over the previous year, but then how far can we go? ... if the economy grows, so does energy consumption .
The bad news it seems, is that world production of oil start to decline between 2007 and 2010, as geologists and engineers skilled in the art, which form the Association for the Study of Oil Depletion, called ASPO ( http://www. peakoil.net / ) .
Edgar Ocampo
http://www.crisisenergetica.org/
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